Statistical review: who were the best teams and players

Leading into the last two games this weekend, I'm taking a break from my own badly written melodrama and attempting a more dry review of the teams and the players from a statistical perspective.

Most of you who go to FIFA.com are probably aware of the Castrol index, which ranks the players with its own scheme designed for rewarding players based on their individual performances on certain positions of the field in a game. I'm not here to talk about the Castrol index, especially as I don't know its formula (trade secrets).

However, the main issue with the Castrol index is how the scores are in no way based on how individuals play together as a team with a collective goal in mind. Dr. Jordi Duch devised his own ranking scheme to counter this, and this is what I'll discuss, since I know how it works.

The premise is brilliant, he tracks every passing movement that a team performs, from the moment someone gets the ball, to the moment a ball is lost, or a shot is taken. In this way, Jordi is able to build a passing network of how the players interact in a game. He also 'weighs' the interactions between the players based on the number of passes they had between them, and based on how many of the collective passing movements ended in a shot (resulting in either a goal or not).

The result is that he can score individual players based on how 'central' they were (he calls it 'flow centrality') to the entire team's ability to score goals, and he can also give the team a rating of its own, based on its best players. Jordi tested his rating on Euro 2008, with a lot of success, he matched player and team performances to media expectations.

Worst and Best of the last 16
I'm going to start with some of the teams that never made it out of the group stage.
I show here the top four teams, and the worst three teams in terms of team rating. The ratings themselves range from 3 to -3, but a value of 0 means plain average, values of 1/-1 means good/bad, whilst values of 2/-2 means bunch of geniuses/idiots. Not only do I show the teams average rating over three games, I show their opponents average rating, which indicates (indirectly) how well the teams did defensively.

Team	Average Rating	Average Opponent Rating
Ivory Coast	1.1	0.5
South Africa	1.1	1.1
Italy	0.9	-1.2
Denmark	0.9	1.6
Switzerland	-0.1	0.9
Honduras	-0.8	1.3
New Zealand	-1.5	0.9

Of the top four teams that made it out, Italy has got to feel the most done-over. Not only did they do well (many teams that 'graduated' didn't get a rating of 1), their opponents sucked, even Slovakia with its three goals on three good chances allowed Italy to play way better than them.

Team	Average Rating	Average Opponent Rating

Semi-finals review (and then there were two)

Uruguay vs Netherlands
A smashing game with smashing goals, and a bit of anxiety at the finish. Uruguay honestly never looked like they could win this game, especially as they had to take off the top scorer near the end, and was already missing their other top scorer. But the Dutch never dominated, and so on another day, it could have been a different story.

Due to my man-crush on the tireless Kuyt, I kept looking out for him, and I was intrigued to find him and Robben swapped sides constantly throughout the game, I hadn't noticed this before, and I don't know if it was new to this game, but it must have been hell for the Uruguayan full-backs to constantly adjust to the two coming and going. I couldn't actually catch them doing it, and to be honest, this made me realize how, when attacking, every Dutchman seemed to be switching at will, some kind of mini-total-football.

I double-checked Van Bronckhorst shooting statistics, and yes, the one and only time the man decides to unload, he hits the straightest rocket a Jabulani will ever see, and it went in true.

Probably the second best goal of the game was Uruguayan's second, I had a flashback of Argentina vs England in 1998, when Zanetti took the ball after hiding behind our wall, and hammered it in just before half time. This one had the same feel, though Pereira wasn't hiding, and had a harder shot to make with defenders in front of him. It made for a finish that was more exciting than one would have expected. Did anyone honestly predict five goals?

Spain vs Germany
Seemed like there's so little to comment on here. For all of its attacking glory, Germany fell short by a long way, only managing two shots on goal in the entire game (though Kroos had a very good chance) and the Spanish midfield just passed and pressed their way into such domination that it took Germany 30 minutes or more to even get a shot off. Wow. I honestly can say, even if the no-goal counted against Germany, and England beat them, and then saw off the Argentinians with confidence, we'd have lost this one.

I must say though, that Pedro really ticked me off. Torres came on with a fresh set of legs to help keep the pressure off at the end, and had a genuine chance to fulfil his purpose as a full-blooded goal scorer, and the little idiot just went for glory of his own. It made me almost wish that Germany had equalized, because he would have deserved some serious bad press for that, especially when such a good young forward needs the confidence boost before the final.

The End
Two plus years, over two hundred nations, 5 billion pounding hearts ago, I made a personal pledge to try and follow this cup as much as possible, and that meant the entire cup, and it seems like an eternity, fresh off Euro 2008, that I was checking the results of the small islands in CONCACAF and Oceania.

So it comes to this, two of the best teams to have never won the World Cup, get their chance on Sunday to finish all of this, in the last game. May the best team win.

The "Wait-this-is-a-semi?!" quarter-final review

Alright so I was lulled into a false sense of security before I realized it was Tuesday, somehow, I expected to have one more day before the semis, so my quarter-final reviews are somewhat late.

Brazil vs The Netherlands
Next time I meet a genuine Dutchman, I'm going to grin inanely and slap my forehead repeatedly. Seems to be some kind of greeting. Honestly, we all thought Brazil was going to run away with this, the ease with which Robinho strode through the orange lines and one-touched the ball past the 'keeper seemed to indicate that the Dutch were going down, yet again. In fact, seeing that Arjen was involved, my initial thought was how the team's "star" was caught being lazy. He wasn't an important factor in this game, other than being a diva.

What was nice to see Kuyt and Sneijder connecting again, I'm impressed with those two, that headed goal was undefendable too, how can you react to a knock-on like that, you can only watch.

But the joke was on Melo. I didn't know about his disclipinary record 'til I caught some post-match comments, but he really looks like a petulant idiot lunging for the ball like that, especially with Diva under him. The first Dutch goal wasn't his fault though, a 'keeper of Cesar's stature should be gathering these crosses easily, no matter who is in the way.

Uruguay vs Ghana
A game where nothing seemed to happen, bar two strikes, until the end of extra time. I'm not sure, given the 1-1 score, how Ghana got so much possession, Uruguay seems content to play out the draw, but there they all were, the ball pinging around, and Suarez getting his instinctive red card.

I agree with Graham Poll (too lazy for links, sorry) that if it was instinct, then give Ghana the goal, give Suarez the yellow, there's a world of a difference between denying a striker the chance to shoot, and actually keeping the ball out when it was going in.

I feel for Gyan, you could see it in the replay of his "miss" (is hitting the crossbar a miss?) he was looking to his upper-left, but struck the ball hard down the middle. His next penalty, in the shoot-out, which he scored, he hit the ball to the upper-left. My take is that he shot the penalty he intended to the first time, but the first time he tried it, he had second doubts about the direction with disastrous results. He must have been thinking that the 'keeper was reading him.

Argentina vs Germany
Now we can say Diego Maradona is an idiot. He may have a low center of gravity, a deft touch, a satanic hand, but the man cannot coach, and I never believed he would pull it off. The only thing that stayed my hand when I wanted to say Argentina would never make it, was star power. But this is the cup where stars fade, and so it was with Messi, Tevez and Mascherano, as the Germans showed them how to find time and space, and how to do pin-point crosses, let alone finish.

My favourite was Ozil's delicate chip for Klose, the man hardly had to adjust his position to strike the ball, the hallmark of quality. Germany are to be feared, if all the stories about their renaissance are to be taken seriously, for years to come.

Spain vs Paraguay
Noise has been generated over how much opportunity Spain generated when Torres came off, but the boy is a wonder, I've watched him terrorize defenses in the last couple of years, and he should start again.

I would have noted that this was the craziest two minutes of my short World Cup life if it wasn't for the end of the Uruguay-Ghana game, goodness, to concede two penalties, take three, actually not get penalized for another infraction (did anyone notice Paraguay's goalkeeper taking down a Spaniard going for the penalty rebound?) and the scoreline remained 0-0.

It seems all the more crazy that the sole goal was the result of three fortunate bounces of the woodwork and two separate shots. Villa once again benefited from a rebound, and Fabregas proved that he could grip a shirt if he wanted to.

I'd post predictions, but a semi has already been and gone. Tomorrow, Villa and Torres tries to get the German defense to cough, whilst hoping that their own isn't surgically cut apart.

And then there were eight

Brazil vs Chile
This was supposed to be a clash of offensive titans, the two top scoring teams from CONMEBOL, a game over-flowing with goals and attacking talent and what-not. Only, when I looked at the qualification results, I had a premonition. Brazil beat Chile 4-2 at home, and 3-0 away. High-scoring games, and not in Chile's favor, at all.

Once again, they met their match it seems. Every England fan quivers with the thought of playing Deutschland, and so it must be for the Chileans, burning voodoo dolls of Fabiano, Kaka et al., using canary yellow toilet paper, and anything else they can think of to shake the curse.

Zonal Marking made a great mention of the Chilean back, Javar, who was supposed to handle Robinho, how he got forward too far one time, and presto, a 3-on-3 with Fabiano, Kaka and Robinho breaks through. I feel like I need to schedule an online webinar with ZM because I'm learning stuff some cool stuff about these games.

Holland vs Slovakia
The Dutch welcome back Arjen Robben with open arms, and, his ambidextrous feet. I mentioned on a previous post how its useful to cut in and cross and shoot, but of course ZM beat me to it with the term "inverted wingers", and Robben, once again, showed why. It was a beauty too, threaded very nicely just inside the post.

My hero of this game was Dirk Kuyt, not least because he plays for the Reds, and not least because the man is a machine, he must have titanium thigh-bones attached to a perpetual-machine-type set of cogs in his knees, because he just goes on and on and on to a ball from a fast free kick, but, I like him really, because he personifies team play. He had every chance to score in that moment, to cut back in around the keeper, to keep the ball and chip someone, but no, he took the easy option and set up Sneidjer. I say it's easy, but for someone with star-power, it's hard not to be the scorer, and Kuyt seems to have gotten that football is a team sport.

Paraguay vs Japan
As lack of excitement this game might have been, I found myself enjoying it because I knew anything, and absolutely anything would change the game. Both sides were able to find the ball in the opposing box, through set-pieces, bad passes or sheer luck, and, though there were very little chances on goal, it kept giving me this thrill that something might happen.

It's one of those games when you appreciate how a nation is behind each team passionately willing them on. Seeing those clips of the fans sets the tone, and you can feel the respective economies of the two countries teetering on some invisible cliff. I know I was depressed on Sunday, but somehow, being the first team to be in the quarter-finals, ever, for a country, and having a great chance to do so, would mean a greater depression if the chance was missed.

It wasn't even a miss too, smacking into the bar like that, just inches, mere inches. Unfortunately for Japan, they were the only ones hoping for that extra inch, and Paraguay become the last CONMEBOL team to go through.

Spain vs Portugal
I was hoping for another battle not unlike the one we saw between the Portugese and the Dutch in the last World cup. I was kind of expecting there to be some serious tackles and some trans-iberian bitterness pouring out, but, I have to admit, the Spanish and the Portugese don't really have much of a footballing rivalry, and in any case, there wasn't much of a game to watch too, thanks to the Spanish midfield.

I loved how Spain came out of the starting blocks firing away, all of their shots seemed like they could be saved, but still. Even though Portugal settled and took the game to the Spanish on occaison, they never seriously threatened, least of all through their star, the center-piece of the so called Nike advert. Nike has got to be firing people left and right now Villa and Messi, at the heart of the Adidas ad, are progressing through the tournament at will, and most of the Nike stars are out (even Federer, now that I think of it, Ha!).

It was disappointing see Torres come off, and the chance that his replacement had mere minutes later, Torres would have put that away, I'm sure of it. But he did seem like he couldn't do much. I'm not getting a good grip on the tactics, but more and more, it seems like that the people who go wide, and come in late, become the more likely goal-scorers, like Ramos and Villa, and the ones who are expected to play centrally need some serious imagination behind them. Unfortunately for Torres, it seems like that he didn't get the chance in 60 minutes.

Coming up
Epics:
Brazil vs Holland - a re-match of the semi-final of 1998!
Argentina vs Germany - a re-match of 2006, 1990, and 1986 ( can anyone guess which plump coke-sniffer played in the latter two games?)
First-Timers:
Ghana vs Uruguay - no CAF nation has made it to the semi-finals of the World Cup
One-sided goal fest:
Spain vs Paraguay - Anyone wants to bet against Villa scoring?

Halfway to the quarter-finals: weeding out the suspect defences

Uruguay vs S. Korea
The Koreans had a better game, and by better, I mean they enjoyed more possession in the opponent's box, and created more and better chances. It's not that the Uruguayans sat back after their first goal, it's that, despite sitting back, they still were not good at dispossessing the Koreans. Fortunately for the Uruguayans, they were gifted their first goal, and Suarez, the opportunist-extraordinaire, curled in a rare chance.

S. Korea joins Japan as the Asian nations that show off their mastery of the Jabulani free-kick.

USA vs Ghana
This was a game that seems to swing back and forth on a pendulum, but the US was undone, it seems by a combination of Ghanian tenacity, and a lack of energy from their main forwards, even after their preferred XI started the second half.

Prince-Boateng hoodwinked Howard and the US defenders into thinking that he was going to pass the ball, before switching directions and taking a one-time shot. Howard had bitten, and didn't have time to adjust.

I must admit, I was impressed that several of the Ghanians chose to stay on their feet throughout the game, despite being given the opportunity to flop by Americans kicking their heels. Several have noted their antics towards the end of the game, but they were the equivalent of a time-out, the referee does stop his watch, and the defence takes the chance to reset. The Americans who don't like it should see what happens when you take time-outs away from their favourite sports.

The US dominated the second half, and were unfortunate not to get more chances, but cometh the hour, cometh the man, and it wasn't Donovan this time. Gyan stayed on his feet when he could have flopped, and, splitting the defence, hammered the ball home.

England vs Germany
Zonal Marking, perhaps my favourite read after every game, highlights England's problem with Ozil, and, sadly, their own formation. Watching the games, I was never convinced that England would struggle this much defensively, even against a wild card like Ozil, and I'm still convinced that the Germans would never have broken like that in the second half if England didn't push so for the equalizer. Truly, I don't think anyone in the England camp anticipated how fast the Germans could be, and how good their outlet passes could be. It's almost as if England, seeing themselves as World-Beaters, believed that other teams would have the same problems. As it happens, England is England, and they failed to see Germany for who they are in their current form.

People have addressed the short-comings of the England team as the players not being good enough, or simply not being "World class", which is utter bollocks for anyone who has followed the Premier League over the last decade. Many of the players on the team have a crucial role to play for the club team who employ them, and many clubs in Europe would fall over themselves to buy one of them if they had the money. The problem is that we cannot translate domestic success into international success, especially if they all come from different playing systems, and to me, it truly seemed like they could not adjust to the system Capello had in place, as a group of individuals, and so their movement and their passing suffered, and they failed to form a team.

What now? The "Golden Generation" was supposed to win Germany 2006, and as we look forward to Brazil 2014, many of the midfielders and defenders from this tournament will not be on that team. We have two years to rebuild and re-adjust for Euro 2012, and I can only hope that Capello changes his system in time.

Argentina vs Mexico
It seems like the Argentinians outclassed Mexico, but I'm disappointed, like in the England game, the first half score line was defined by a defensive mistake, and an erroneous call. Mexico chased the score admirably, and Hernandez's goal made me fear the Rooney-Hernandez partnership we'll see in the Premier League next year, woo, I think he's going to be my latest source of hatred. But, foreign players are hit and miss when it comes to the speed of the Premier League so we'll see.

Tevez's goal was hit so hard, I think that if we were to look at the frames 1/32 second by 1/32 second, there would actually be some frames where you couldn't see the ball.

Blatter
Are you watching?

Prediction for Round of 16 and thereafter

Uruguay vs Korea Republic
Uruguay surprised me with their defense, they didn't concede a goal. The Koreans played better than I thought they would, but probably should have lost to Nigeria.

Prediction: Uruguay 2 Korea Republic 1

USA vs Ghana
Donovan's exploits were not unexpected given his drive and maturity, just a little late, just not too late. It's exciting to be in the US for this. Ghana barely scraped through, two gifts from Serbia in the form of a penalty and a loss, coupled with a 1-1 draw against 10 Aussies. Won't be a recap of 2006.

Prediction: USA 2 Ghana 0

Germany vs England
England seemed to control all three games in their group, but only managed to get their offensive act together for the last game. Germany struggled to score against Serbia. Wild card: Ozil

Prediction: England 1 Germany 0

Argentina vs Mexico
For all of La Celeste's firepower, they were vulnerable at the back, Nigeria and Korea Republic had the best of chances before succumbing. Mexico underperformed in my opinion, especially since they decided their 1-0 loss to Uruguay wasn't going to affect their chance of promotion.

Prediction: Argentina 2 Mexico 2
Argentina wins penalty shoot-out.

Netherlands vs Slovakia
Dutch got a little luck, assisted by the post, and then Robben came back. Slovakia hung their heads after NZ and Paraguay took chances, and then displayed some intuitive team-work, technical skill and some balls against Italy.

Prediction: Netherlands 2 Slovakia 1

Brazil vs Chile
The two best CONMEBOL teams with the most offense went into their third games almost assured of going through, Chile less so. The Chileans were undone by a red card, so we never got to see how they could have attacked the Spanish. Brazil were allowed to pass by Portugal, but struggled to find any rhythm in the second half. Dunga needs to sit Dani Alves down and explain the concept of striking the ball underneath at whilst taking corners, and not whilst taking shots.

Prediction: Brazil 2 Chile 2
Brazil wins penalty shootout.

Paraguay vs Japan
Japan were one of my favorite teams on the ball, literally, they seemed like they figured the Jabulani with a sweet cross assisting the goal against Nigeria, and two fine free kicks that beat Sorenson, a seasoned Premier League goalie. Paraguay beat the Slovaks, but didn't seem to do much of note.

Prediction Japan 1 Paraguay 0

Spain vs Portugal
Spain seems to be on the up after losing to Switzerland, Torres still has to find form given his recent injury, but you can't fault their passing and movement with Cesc and Xavi at the heart. Portugal has one big result and two no-score draws, and you can fault Ronaldo with his dirt-kissing and long range field goal attempts.

Prediction: Spain 1 Portugal 0

Quarter-Finals
USA 2 Uruguay 1
Brazil 2 Netherlands 1
England 1 Argentina 0
Spain 4 Japan 0

Semi-Finals
England 1 Spain 0
Brazil 2 USA 0

Final
England 2 Brazil 1

Now you know me, I can't be trusted to make predictions objectively.

Review of Days 5-11

So I'm a bit late in reviewing my take on all the action so far, as it happens I started traveling on Day 5 (I was watching NZ vs Slovakia on the Chicago 'L') and since then, haven't been able to watch a full game without some form of distraction until I got home last night. Regardless, thanks to ESPN Mobile TV and ESPN3.com, I calculate that I caught about 80% of the action.

I'm going to keep this short and sweet, if I can, as I'm already behind. I plan to review the action every day once we get to the round of 16.

Comparison of Regions
As it stands, UEFA and CONMEBOL dominate the list of teams that have either qualified or have a good chance of advancing, along with perhaps one or two Asian and CONCACAF teams. CAF is the singular biggest disappointment in this tournament, though, I would have given Ivory Coast a chance if Portugal didn't just go and hammer the North Koreans. This actually may have an impact on the number of delegates FIFA may allow to compete in the next few World Cups, and I wouldn't be surprised if perhaps CAF's fifth team will have to go to a playoff next time, whilst CONMEBOL's fifth may be spared.

Crosses and Free-kicks
My favorite two crosses that I've seen so far in this tournament, were the one that led to Japan's goal against Cameroon, and the one that led to New Zealand's equalizer against Slovakia. Both of them could only be defended if the target was closely marked. What I mean by that is that they were the type of cross that neither goalie or defender could react to. The New Zealand cross in particular is a big reason for being ambidextrous when it comes to crossing as well as dribbling and shooting.

As for free-kicks, I think today, S. Korea scored the only intentionally direct free kick so far this tournament, which says a lot about how hard it is to keep the ball down. In fact, the Korean kept it deliberately so far down it bounced before it went in, which, in retrospect, is the best thing you could do considering.

Go wide
It's no secret that playing wide can reap benefits, finding space for your team, but nothing beat Rommedahl on how to create simple goals coming in from the outside. Johan Cruyff said that "Simple football is the most beautiful" and the Danes showed the world what that can be, though it wasn't the "Total football" Cruyff was referring to.

On that note, probably the most beautiful no-goal, if it actually went in, was a passing movement by the Swiss against Chile, right before the death. I can't find the video, especially as it didn't result in a goal. The Swiss also had a player who, against Spain, walked his way through the entire defence, it seemed, only to hit the post. Dammit, that would have been my best no-goal, if it wasn't for Chris Wood.

Chris Wood
Waiting on the sidelines, he looked like a rabbit in the headlights. Playing, he didn't seem to have a big impact, he was, after all, playing for NZ against Italy. But he had a chance that went wide of the post, a chance, that, if it went in, would have permanently engraved his name in every history book and every encyclopedia in New Zealand. For, like Michael at the time, he is only a teenager.

I'll put my money on Wood starting the next game, as NZ has to beat Paraguay to advance. Will they be 2010's Australia?

Speaking of which, it hasn't really worked for Australia to have so few strikers on the squad, especially when two front men got sent off in two games in succession. They'll probably field a more attacking formation for their last chance, which won't include, at their loss, Harry.

Harry
Harry Kewell actually represents two times in my life, in the late 1990's, when Leeds United were the reincarnation of the 'crazy gang', a young but daring team taking on all comers, and even shocking some giants in the Champions League. I hated and loved them, and was sorry to see them fall apart like that (financial reasons) and to be scattered. For some reason, I always remember that Howard Wilkinson called Lee Bowyer an animal. The second time was when he played for Liverpool of course.

Have you noticed how I have a lot to say about former colonies? Oh well.

Referees
The Malian has to go, enough said. There's been a few other ridiculous decisions, but none that beat US's disallowed goal, which is a damn shame seeing it would have been a helluva comeback. Did the ref have an agenda? We can only speculate.

Let's Go!
And so we come to the start of the knockouts, as the third round is literally that, you win, you might not go home...though, in the case of England and the US, its certain: En-Ger-Laaand!!!